Notebook: Per-Capita Map Tells All
We always love going one step further. Last week's blue-chip notebook featured a comparison of how we compare to the rest of the state in terms of 2009's prospects. Now we one-up all of that. We took a county-by-county and city-by-city look at the entire state to find out who's better PER-CAPITA. We feel that's the real kicker in all this.
Sure an area can have 'x' amount of prospects, but it may be in fact due to their sheer size. By looking at population in relation to prospects, we felt we could come up with the ultimate tool to judge by.
So we had to come up with a formula to judge each county and city. For starters, we did not include the class of 2009. They have not signed a letter of intent yet, and there are plenty of recruits whose status we don't know about yet. So in order to be fair about the process, we took players who have signed letters of intent. Next was to find an acceptable time frame. After much debate, six years was viewed as an appropriate window in which to judge each county and city. In six years, that's enough time for a program to fully establish itself, and if the program has fallen on hard times, it's enough leeway to look on its once-bright history. Finally, we agreed no private school players could be included. There's simply no true way to find out where each player's hometown is, and even then, they go through a way different development process than a public school system.
Once we had the groundwork laid out, we needed a way to add everything up. What seemed simplest was to take each county or city's population and divide it by the number of signees in the past six years.
So we settled on the formula, and the results were surprising. Not only does it turn small cities and counties into legit hotbeds or sources for talent, but we noticed certain trends as well. For starters, the one constant among every hotbed or talent rich area, was that they were next to cities. Not high population areas, but cities. It seems they facilitate a lot of talent, coaching and recruiters to come into the area. The second trend was that recruiters don't discriminate based on success. Schools without any reputation whatsoever and located far from high population areas were able to send kids to the highest level of play.
But don't take our word for it. Take a look for yourself, and you be your own judge...
THE HOTBEDS
Fauquier, Bath, Bedford City, Surry (Dark Red):
So who was expecting these areas to be the most productive in the state? In fact, by our formula, Bath County has produced the most signees per capita. With a grand total of just 327 kids in the entire school, and just over 5,000 in the county, Bath still managed to produce a Division I signee in John Phillips (Virginia). That instantly puts them at the top, but right behind them is Northern Virginia's Fauquier County. There's a lot of talk about Fairfax and Prince William having the most talent, but it's really Fauquier. They've managed to produce eight signees, with a population just around 55,000. Per-capita wise, that's the second best there is in the entire state. What's even more amazing is that all eight players came from just one high school: Liberty. Credit coach Tommy Buzzo for making that happen, as he's a figure that's known throughout the state for sending his players to the next level. He's the person who has single-handily taken Fauquier and made them into the most effective county for producing talent.
Stafford, Orange, Rockbridge, Amherst, Henrico, Chesapeake, Hampton (Light Red):
Here's where you see your AAA powers come into play. Henrico, Chesapeake and Hampton are all home to state contenders, so really no surprise to see them in this category. Having combined to send 67 players to the Division I-A level over the past six years, those hotbeds are known up and down the East Coast for the talent they produce. Amherst, who could beat most AAA sized schools, makes an appearance with their three signees.
Yet there are several underrated counties in this grouping. Stafford, Orange and Rockbridge aren't known for their football programs, but have been effective over the years in producing talent.
TALENT RICH AREAS
Prince William, Bristol, Brunswick, Culpeper, Danville, Goochland, Halifax, Nelson, Norfolk, Virginia Beach (Dark Orange):
This is our biggest grouping, and it includes several surprises. Bristol, Brunswick and Nelson all have populations below 20,000 and haven't produced prominent teams as of late. However, they've each sent one player to the Division I-A level, and with their small populations, it's enough to get them high on the map.
Prince William checks in as the second-most effective county in Northern Virginia, just right behind Fauquier. With 19 signees, they have the second-most in NoVA, only behind Fairfax's 41. This should come as no surprise, as Prince William annually produces a team capable of winning a state title. There's talent aplenty in this county.
Isolated AAA's Culpeper and Danville have combined for only five signees, but with populations under 50,000, they easily rank in the top per-capita. No surprise either to see the rest of the Hampton Roads' main areas of Virginia Beach and Norfolk show up. The two 757 residences have sent 44 players to the highest level of play in the past six years. Combined with Chesapeake and Hampton, that's a whopping 80 players total.
Fairfax, Winchester, Caroline, Charlottesville, Prince Edward, Salem, Tazewell (Light Orange):
Considering Fairfax's massive population, it's an honest surprise they're up this high. With an astounding 969,000 residents, there isn't a city or county in the state that's even half that size. Heck, the second-biggest county in the state, which happens to be Prince William, has about a third of that number. So despite Fairfax's 41 signees, which are the most of any city or county in the state, its numbers are watered down because of its heavy population.
Ironically, while Fairfax's monumental population is in this grouping, the rest of the counties and states have a populace of less than 45,000. Only Charlottesville and Tazewell have sent more than one player to the Division I-A level, while the rest have sent just one. Nonetheless, with such small school enrollments, it adds up to be equal to that of Fairfax.
MODERATE LEVEL
Loudoun, Bedford County, Botetourt, Chesterfield, Henry, Isle of Wight, Newport News Yellow:
The last Northern Virginia county to appear is Loudoun. With six signees and a population of 170,000, they aren't in the blue, but are instead at an average rate. In fact, if we added 2009's prospects to Loudoun's current numbers, they would be listed as a talent-rich area. At the same token, all but one of those players would be from Stone Bridge. Take them out of the equation, and Loudoun would be in the blue.
In addition to Loudoun, there are two other highly populated areas in this grouping. Chesterfield and Newport News both produce talent at a moderate level, and have been home to a combined 17 signees. While that is a moderate number, it is far from their neighbors. Across from Chesterfield, there's Henrico, who has produced twice as many signees. Newport News is then the second-lowest ranking city in Hampton Roads, ranking behind Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Hampton and Chesapeake. Isle of Wight, which is in the general vicinity of Hampton Roads, is also way down from its neighbors.
The southern Virginia counties of Botetourt, Henry and Bedford have combined to send five players to the Division I-A level, enough to put them at a moderate rate.
Manassas, Rockingham, Roanoke City, Suffolk, Gloucester (Yellow Green):
Thanks in part to Brandon Hogan, Manassas is listed at a moderate level. He's their only signee in six years, but enough to keep them out of the gray. In fact, they're the second-highest ranked city in the Northern Virginia area, only behind Winchester.
Another Hampton Roads city, Suffolk, shows up here and is again behind the majority of its neighboring cities, although they are listed as being average. Rockingham, with their two signees, is enough to put them at a moderate level, while the city of Roanoke has produced three of their own. Gloucester, with a small population of 34,000, had just one signee, but it's enough to put them at a moderate level.
BELOW AVERAGE
Hanover, James City, Lynchburg, Pittsylvania, Richmond (Green):
No Northern Virginia cities or counties are listed at a below average level, which is a great thing, but unfortunately, several fall in cold or barren zones. Of the cities and counties that are listed at a below average level, Hanover and Richmond are the most notable. Both areas are geared more toward basketball, and Richmond city schools play AAA competition with AA enrollment numbers.
Lynchburg, Pittsylvania and James City have all produced one signee each, which does get them on the map, but unfortunately, below the level the rest of the state is on.
COLD ZONE
Alexandria, Arlington, Montgomery, Roanoke County, Spotsylvania (Blue):
Here's where things hurt a bit for our area, but are also excusable to an extent. With Alexandria and Arlington having a combined population of 317,000, just three signees have ever come out of both areas. In contrast, Amherst has produced that same amount of talent with a population of only 32,000. Yet here's the kicker. Arlington and Alexandria, despite such a heavy population, only have four public schools between them. That means a large majority of its residents attend private school in nearby Washington, D.C. or Maryland. Factor in that both areas are more famous for basketball than football, and you can see why there is such a lack of production.
One other county which will certainly no longer be in blue is Spotsylvania. They'll be tripling their amount of signees after the 2009 class signs their letters of intent, and with that, would be put at a moderate level.
BARREN:
Notables... Frederick, Albemarle, Harrisonburg, Portsmouth
By far the biggest gaffe on our map is the complete omission of Portsmouth. With a city of over 100,000 and being in Hampton Roads, you would think they'd be able to produce at least one signee per year. Yet with football being a bit weak in the city for now, that is not the case.
Unfortunately, Frederick has not had a signee either, but that will change once Sherando's Ross Metheny signs his letter of intent. With Millbrook's surge in prominence, it won't be long before they start putting Frederick on the map in a big way as well. In five years, this is certainly a county which could be listed as talent rich.
In addition to Portsmouth, Albemarle not having a signee comes as a big shock as well. The biggest explanation for this could be that their public school system has to compete with keeping players away from powerful St. Anne-Belfield. A private school power, they've lured players such as Chris Long away from the county schools for a very long time.
COMPLETE LIST
Bath (1: 5,048 = 5,048)
FAUQUIER (8: 55,139 = 6,126)
Bedford City (1: 6,299 = 6,299)
Surry (1: 6,829 = 6,829)
Henrico (31: 262,300 = 7,714)
Hampton (17: 146,147 = 8,613)
Stafford (9: 92,446 = 10,271)
Rockbridge (2: 20,808 = 10,404)
Chesapeake (19: 199,184 = 10,483)
Amherst (3: 31,894 = 10,631)
Orange (2: 25,881 = 12,940)
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Virginia Beach (31: 425,257 = 13,717)
Nelson (1: 14,455 = 14,455)
PRINCE WILLIAM (19: 280,813 = 14,799)
Danville (3: 48,411 = 16,187)
Goochland (1: 16,893 = 16,893)
Culpeper (2: 34,262 = 17,131)
Bristol (1: 17,367 = 17,367)
Norfolk (13: 234,403 = 18,031)
Brunswick (1: 18,496 = 18,496)
Halifax (2: 37,555 = 18,677)
Prince Edward (1: 19,720 = 19,720)
FAIRFAX (41: 969,749 = 22,039)
Caroline (1: 22,121 = 22,121)
Tazewell (2: 44,598 = 22,289)
Charlottesville (2: 45,049 = 22,524)
WINCHESTER (1: 23,585 = 23,585)
Salem (1: 24,747 = 24,747)
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Newport News (7: 180,150 = 25,735)
Chesterfield (10: 259,903 = 25,990)
LOUDOUN (6: 169,599 = 28,266)
Henry (2: 57,930 = 28,965)
Isle of Wight (1: 29,728 = 29,728)
Bedford (2: 60,371 = 30,185)
Botetourt (1: 30,496 = 30,496)
Roanoke City (3: 94,911 = 31,637)
Suffolk (2: 63,677 = 31,838)
Rockingham (2: 67,725 = 33,862)
Gloucester (1: 34,780 = 34,780)
MANASSES (1: 35,135 = 35,135)
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Roanoke County (2: 85,778 = 42,889)
Hanover (2: 83,320 = 43,160)
James City (1: 48,102 = 48,102)
Richmond (4: 197,790 = 49,447)
Pittsylvania (1: 61,745 = 61,745)
Lynchburg (1: 65,269 = 65,269)
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Montgomery (1: 83,629 = 83,629)
Spotsylvania (1: 90,395 = 90,395)
ARLINGTON (2: 189,453 = 94,726)
ALEXANDRIA (1: 128,289 = 128,289)
For questions or comments on Northern Virginia recruiting, please e-mail me, Derek LeComte, at GamedayRecruits@aol.com
